Who Has Gained The Most Hits With No Shift This Season?
Orioles gain the most, Tigers pitching burned
Major League Baseball (MLB) added a rule for the 2023 season and beyond where you have to have two fielders on each side of the second base bag and they have to start with their cleats on the infield dirt. So, has that changed the sport drastically?
To begin, the first half batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in 2023 is at .297. That is up from .289 and .291 in the first half of the previous two seasons. This season, there have been 484 more non-HR hits than would be expected if we are assuming the 2021–2022 rates. Part of that uptick could be related to the lack of shifts teams can make on batters this season.
How about we look at teams and players that have benefitted the most from the most recent rule changes. Here at Inside Edge, we have tracked plays where a major shift (three players to one side or near three players to one side) could have changed the outcome of the play. The results have certainly favored certain teams.
Tigers hitters have gained 49 hits because the lack of shifts this season. While that is middle of the pack on offense, their pitchers/defense have allowed 76 hits that would have been outs if there was a major shift this year. That -27 hit differential is worst in MLB. On the other hand, the Nationals, Orioles, and Braves all have a +20 hit differential or better.
Which hitter has benefitted the most from the lack of shifts? Well, it might just be the best hitter in the game.
Shohei Ohtani has gained 14 hits because opposing teams cannot shift on him in the first half of the season. If you take into account all times a shift impacted his at-bats, his batting average would drop from .304 to .264. We should note that there still are ‘major’ shifts that opposing teams employ based on our definition. We term these ‘near three to one side’ and you can see an example in the screenshot below.
How have these shift changes affected your favorite team? Have they benefitted or has it been a drawback by your eye?