Revisiting NFL's Best of the Best in 2023
Last summer, we set out on a data-driven mission to find out what characteristics the "Best of the Best" NFL teams had in common. More specifically, what did each of these teams do to help them gain a significant advantage over their opponents. To discover this, we selected 6 NFL teams from the 2022 NFL season that performed above and beyond the rest, using their season Point Differentials (Points Scored - Points Allowed) as well as consensus power rankings. This left us with six teams:
Kansas City Chiefs
Philadelphia Eagles
Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals
San Francisco 49ers
Dallas Cowboys
We found four common traits that each of the above teams exemplified, and a handful of statistics that relate to each trait in which each of Best of the Best team was near the top of the leaderboard.
Dominating from the Jump - Best of the Best Teams excel at giving themselves a great chance to win early in every game
The Clutch Factor - Best of the Best Teams are able to thrive in circumstances with a higher level of pressure (i.e. Close and late game situations, 3rd Downs, etc.)
The Little Things - Best of the Best Teams are able to gain additional advantages from in-game events that only happen a handful of times
They do this AND that - Best of the Best have tendencies to be at the top of the leaderboard of a certain statistic, as well as many related statistics
For more on our findings and explanations of each statistic, Read More Here
What is our current goal?
We are now going to set out to find which of these "common traits" we found from last year's "Best of the Best" were also illustrated by the Best of the Best teams of 2023. Maybe some of the similarities between the best six teams of 2022 happened by chance? We want to filter those out and see what the best teams are doing year after year. Each statistic will be placed into one of two categories, "Best of the Best Teams Still Dominated This in 2023", or "Best of the Best Teams Didn't Dominate This in 2023"
First, we need to identify the top six teams of 2023. Again, we will use the six teams with the highest point differential. These teams were
Baltimore Ravens
Dallas Cowboys
San Francisco 49ers
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
Kansas City Chiefs
Now, let's dive into it...
Trait 1: Dominating From the Jump
Best of the Best Teams Still Dominated This in 2023
1st Half Point Differential
1st Half Points Per Game
1st Half Third Down Conversion Rate
1st Half Yards From Scrimmage Per Touch
1st Quarter Point Differential
1st Quarter Successful Play Pct
Best of the Best Teams Didn't Dominate This in 2023
First Drive Points Per Game
Takeaways:
Best of the Best teams are still taking the lead early and often. Each of the six teams finished in the top ten of 1st Half Point Differential, 1st Half Points Per Game, and 1st Half Third Down Conversion Rate. In fact, most of these teams were much more successful early in the game as opposed to later in the game. Only the Bills had a higher 2nd half point differential than 1st half point differential ( 68 first half, 72 second half). Meanwhile, the Chiefs went on to win the Super Bowl despite posting a measly -6 Point Differential in the 2nd half of Regular Season games.
Trait 2: Clutch Factor
Best of the Best Teams Still Dominated This in 2023
3rd and 10 YTG Conversion Rate
Best of the Best Teams Didn't Dominate This in 2023
Close and Late Passer Rating Allowed
Close and Late Successful Play Pct
Points Per Red Zone Drive Allowed
Win Pct vs Top 10 Run Offenses
Takeaways:
A bit of a surprising one here... Four of the five "clutch" traits that 2022's Best of the Best teams shared weren't exhibited by 2023's Best of the Best. For example, the Miami Dolphins were in the bottom five in the NFL in Passer Rating Allowed in Close and Late situations as well as Points per Red Zone Drive Allowed. How about games that come down to success in the trenches? The Dolphins were 0-4 against NFL offenses that finished in the Top 10 of rushing yards. Despite all of this, the Dolphins clinched a playoff berth win an 11-6 record and a top 5 Point Differential. The only clutch trait that carried over from the 2022 Best of the Best to 2023 was the ability to convert third and longs, as all six aforementioned teams were in the top half of the NFL in converting 3rd and 10 situations.
Trait 3: Little Things
Best of the Best Teams Still Dominated This in 2023
Defensive Sacks on Early Downs
Takeaways
Win Pct When Committing Zero Turnovers
Best of the Best Teams Didn't Dominate This in 2023
Average Drive Start
Takeaways:
Committing and forcing turnovers will always be important to the success of any football team at any level of the sport. It is no surprise that 5 of the 6 Best of the Best teams finished in the top third of takeaways, and all 6 Best of the Best teams finished in the top third of Win % in games committing zero turnovers. It also should be noted that three Best of the Best teams, the Ravens, Dolphins, and Bills, all finished in the top 3 of Defensive Sacks on Early Downs. We are starting to see a trend in the NFL where rushing the passer more frequently is leading to more success overall.
Trait 4: They do This AND That
Best of the Best Teams Still Dominated This in 2023
20 Yard TDs
Forced Turnover Pct
Red Zone Rushing TDs Allowed
Red Zone TDs
Red Zone TDs Allowed
Best of the Best Teams Didn't Dominate This in 2023
20 Yard TDs Allowed
3rd and Long Conversion Rate Allowed
3rd and Short Conversion Rate Allowed
Forced Turnover Pct on QB Pressures
Red Zone Passing TDs Allowed
Takeaways:
Is it more important to have a top offense than it is to have a top defense? Some of the NFLs best teams of 2023 were shockingly mediocre when it came to preventing third down conversions on defense, preventing long touchdowns, and preventing red zone passing touchdowns. Some of this may be due to the fact that these teams frequently take early leads (as shown by Trait 1), and opponents are subsequently more aggressive on offense against these teams (and commit more turnovers, as shown in Trait 3).
To see how your team performed in these categories, Click Here