Offense+ Defense EPA Per Play

Chargers and Broncos proficiency, Offensive explosiveness

We are back to take a look at some EPA numbers entering Week 10. Let’s start with the defensive side of the ball.

• The Chargers defense has allowed just 10 touchdowns all season, best in NFL. They allow successful plays on just 37.6% of plays, 4th best in NFL. They start strong with a 33.2% successful play rate allowed in the 1st half, best in NFL.

• There are no two ways about it, the Broncos defense got crushed last week. Despite that, they are allowed first downs on just 25.0% of plays this year, T-best in NFL. They have the best sack rate (10.2%) on first down which makes it quite difficult for opposing offenses to convert. In fact, they’ve forced three and outs on 28.8% of opposing drives, 5th best in NFL.

• The Jets and Browns allow a bit more on the explosive side compared to the successful side this season. The Jets are allowing a 60.2% reception rate, 2nd best in NFL. The Browns (and Titans) have allowed the most 20+ yards rushes (12) this season.

Let’s take a look at the offensive side of the ball.

• The Chiefs don’t necessarily feel explosive and the chart reflects that. Where are they special? 3rd down. Mahomes is averaging 0.36 EPA per pass play on 3rd down and they are converting 53.2% of 3rd downs this season, both best in NFL.

• Baltimore might be the most explosive team this season. They have 7 or more explosive plays in ALL of their games this season, best in NFL. On the other hand, the Commanders have 6 games where they have 7+ explosive plays and they have won all of those games.

• The Buffalo Bills have been less successful on a per play basis but they have a couple of standout numbers. They average 0.28 EPA per play on motion plays and they (and the Commanders) are perfect on their 4th down tries this season.

What else stands out from the numbers above? Where is your team successful or lacking success?