NFL Success Rate - Week 1
Saints Shine, Seahawks Soar, Panthers Pummeled
By Brett Kelly
Week 1 of the 2024 NFL Season was everything we could've hoped for as fans. We had upsets, shootouts, stout defensive battles, and lots of big plays. Some teams shined in their introductory performance to the 2024 Regular Season, while others have shown that they have lots of room for improvement. To quantify which teams had the most "success", we can categorize any given play as "successful" or unsuccessful" via the below criteria:
1st Down Plays: Gains of at least 50% of yards required for new set of downs
2nd Down Plays: Gains of at least 70% of remaining yards required for new set of downs
3rd and 4th Down Plays: Gains of at 100% of yards required for new set of downs (conversions only)
All touchdowns considered successful, all turnovers considered unsuccessful
Plays called back due to penalty not included
**Week 1 League Average Success Rate: 48.27%
In terms of Net Success Rate (A teams' offensive success rate - defensive success rate), the New Orleans Saints had the most impressive win of Week 1. In their 47-10 domination over the Carolina Panthers, the Saints totaled a Net Success Rate of approximately 0.2 - as their offense performed a successful play on 58% of snaps while their defense allowed a successful play on just 38% of snaps. Not far behind was the Seattle Seahawks with a net success rate of 0.19 in their 26-20 win over the Denver Broncos. Of all losing teams (shown in blue below), the Cincinnati Bengals had the best net success rate of the bunch at 0.04 in their upset loss to the New England Patriots.
In the below graphic, we can see how each team compared offensively versus defensively. Teams with their logo displayed on the right hand side had an above average offense, while teams on the bottom half had an above average defense. The teams with the best overall performances can be seen in the bottom right quadrant while the teams that lacked success in Week 1 can be found in the top left.
The top offensive success rate of the week was 65.6% from the Detroit Lions in their 26-20 OT victory over the Los Angeles Rams. This came from their consistency in the running game, as they were able to average 5.3 yards per carry despite their longest run totaling only 21 yards. The top defensive success rate of the week came from the Dallas Cowboys, as they held the Cleveland Browns to a successful play on less than 32% of their snaps. Specifically, the Cowboys' pass defense was stifling, allowing only 3.8 yards per pass attempt to go along with their 6 QB sacks.
How successful was your team in Week 1?