2023 NFL Success Rates
Which teams saw the most successful season on a down-to-down basis
By Brett Kelly
It is hard to truly define a play as "successful" or "unsuccessful" when it comes to football. Many people will have different opinions on this. For example, if the Philadelphia Eagles gained 4 yards on a 3rd and 5, many would consider this a successful offensive play as they are almost guaranteed to convert the 4th and short. Other teams might think otherwise.
Many NFL analysts will use the following criteria to determine a successful offensive play
1st Down Plays: Gains of at least 50% of yards required for new set of downs
2nd Down Plays: Gains of at least 70% of remaining yards required for new set of downs
3rd and 4th Down Plays: Gains of at 100% of yards required for new set of downs (conversions only)
Note: All touchdowns considered successful, all turnovers considered unsuccessful, penalties INCLUDED
We can calculate a team's "Net Success" by taking their total offensive success rate and subtracting the success rate allowed by their defense.
The three teams with the highest net success rate in 2023 were the San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, and Buffalo Bills.
Despite missing the playoffs, the New Orleans Saints had the 4th highest net success rate in the NFL last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the only team to make the playoffs with a negative net success rate.
OFFENSIVE SUCCESS
The San Francisco 49ers led the way in offensive success rate, achieving a successful play on over 56% of offensive plays .
All of the top 10 teams in offensive success rate made the playoffs.
The San Francisco 49ers achieved a successful offensive play 74.5% of the time in their week 4 win against the Arizona Cardinals (35-16), most of any team in any week.
DEFENSIVE SUCCESS
The Cleveland Browns finished the season with an astounding 40.5% success rate allowed by their defense.
The worst success rate they had allowed in a game was 50.7% in a week 13 matchup against the Rams. 8 teams allowed a AVERAGE success rate higher than 50.7% throughout the entire season!
The Cleveland Browns allowed a season low 19.6% of successful plays to the Arizona Cardinals in the midst of their 27-0 win in week 9.
Only 5 out of 10 teams in the top 10 of success rates allowed by their defenses made the playoffs.
It seems that this stat is a bit more skewed towards some of worse teams as teams will inherently have a lower success rate when running out the clock late in the game with a lead, while teams that are losing will pivot to more of an air attack.
