Hitter’s counts put the batter in favorable positions for either a location they want or pitch type they would prefer to hit. The opposite is true in pitcher’s counts. The power goes to the pitcher to create chase pitches and misses with locations out of the zone or misdirection with an unexpected pitch type. How different are these two counts?
In 2024, there is a .483 OPS difference between an at-bat ending pitch in a 1-2 count compared to a 2-1 count. Breaking pitches are used quite often while in these two strike counts. In fact, pitchers throws a breaking pitch 37.9% of the time in 1-2 counts compared to 26.0% in 2-1 counts. The fastball usage in a 2-1 counts is 59.2% and goes down to 44.7% in the 1-2 counts.
Here are those splits if we just focus on fastballs.
If we just focus on the 1-1 count going to either the 1-2 or 2-1 count, incorrectly called pitches take center stage. There are 1,250 pitches that have been called either a ball in the zone (657 pitches) or a strike out of the zone (593 pitches) in 1-1 counts this season.
Mookie Betts leads baseball with 8 pitches taken out of the zone in 1-1 counts that were called strikes. Who has been the biggest beneficiary in these counts? Steven Kwan has 11 balls called in the zone in 1-1 counts this season.